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Artificial intelligence (AI) has made huge strides in recent years, from beating humans at complex games like Go to generating human-like conversations. Now AI is making further strides in predicting one of life’s greatest mysteries: how long someone will live.
A new AI-powered “death calculator” called life2vec has captured public attention for its reported 78% accuracy in predicting lifespan. Developed by an international team of researchers from institutions such as the Technical University of Denmark, the Max Planck Institute and Stanford, this AI model takes a new approach to predicting mortality.
See more: What is the AI Death Prediction Calculator?
Why Death Calculator AI trending?
How the AI death calculator works
Life2vec uses a specific type of AI called transformer neural networks, which are also used in popular language models such as GPT-3. But instead of analyzing strings of words, life2vec examines strings of life events to make predictions.
The researchers collected a massive data set from more than 6 million Danes, tracking factors such as income, marriage status, diseases, changes in place of residence and connections to family and friends. This data was fed to the AI to reveal patterns that link different life events to mortality.
Lead researcher Sune Lehmann explains: “The AI model learns things that we as humans cannot understand. It can combine data in ways we wouldn’t think of and learn details from the life stories of people that would never occur to us.”
Why accuracy has captured public interest
With a reported accuracy level of 78% – 11% higher than current industry standards – life2vec delivers a major improvement in predicting life expectancy. This level of performance exceeds most existing demographic models used by insurance companies and governments.
For context, a 2020 study found that the accuracy level of commercial life insurance estimators was between 68 and 70%. The jump to 78% demonstrates transformative potential, even if the technology is not yet 100% perfect.
In addition, because Transformer AI analyzes granular details, its predictions extend beyond mortality to personality traits, interests and the likelihood of major life decisions. These possibilities offer new social and behavioral insights.
Responsible use cases and issues
The researchers emphasize that an accuracy of 78%, although a big leap forward, still leaves room for error. Therefore, they strongly caution against applying life2vec predictions to make high-stakes decisions about individuals.
However, the technology could have suitable applications for informing policymaking, infrastructure planning and economic projections. The global healthcare and insurance industries can also benefit from more accurate life expectancies for population segments.
However, there are ethical concerns about the practice of using personal data to profile individuals and groups. Discrimination, loss of privacy and algorithmic judgment are risks that require regulation.
As we increasingly rely on AI for impactful decisions, thoughtful governance is needed to ensure fair, transparent and controlled use of these prediction tools.
Also read: Best AI for old photos
Why this AI is capturing the public imagination
The uniqueness of predicting longevity based on life patterns – rather than traditional health and demographic data – has captured the public imagination. The unprecedented performance of the AI and the use of advanced transformer algorithms also contribute to the increased interest.
Moreover, the idea of an algorithm that examines millions of lives to discover new insights into mortality intrigues people’s curiosity. Media outlets such as The Guardian, Vice, Fortune and others covered the research and discussed philosophical questions about fate versus predictions.
This interplay of cutting-edge science, metaphysical mysteries, and real-world implications arouses natural interest as people ponder what determines the course of life: choices, circumstances, luck, or mathematical models?
Looking ahead to responsible innovation
As algorithms become better able to fathom the mysteries of biology, new technological possibilities will emerge at the intersection of big data, patterns, and predicting life outcomes.
The makers of life2vec themselves state that this is just the beginning of such predictive analyses. However, regulations and ethical guidelines must keep pace with the pace of innovation to prevent abuse while supporting progress.
With responsible development, such AI could positively transform medicine, health policy, economics and infrastructure planning. While technology may never fully decipher the chaos of life, improved statistical models are creating openings to better serve people’s well-being.
In the hands of overzealous profiteers or unchecked systems, we invite unintended consequences. But guided by a compassionate vision, predictive analytics can help build more humane institutions, allocate resources, and ensure that advances in machine learning expand human potential.
The growing interest in life2vec is leading to essential conversations about futuristic capabilities and social values. Our ability to predict the future always surpasses our wisdom for application. As the public marvels at glimpses of what could be, we must carefully assess what would have to be to put radical discoveries in the service of human flourishing.
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