AI Predict Death Calculator With 78% Accuracy

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing at a rapid pace and is showing potential to improve efficiency and productivity across all sectors. However, a new AI-based application has raised some ethical concerns: a death prediction algorithm that can predict an individual’s time of death with 78% accuracy.

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How does the AI ​​Death Predictor work?

The AI ​​death predictor, known as Life2vec, was developed by researchers at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). It uses deep learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of personal factors that can determine longevity.

In concrete terms, Life2vec is fed with health data, education levels, occupation, income and other personal information to make predictions. It was trained on detailed life information from the period 2008-2016 from the Danish population register of more than 6 million citizens. The algorithm looks for patterns in this training data.

It then used the identified patterns to predict whether each individual had died in 2020. Amazingly, it predicted deaths within this period with 78% accuracy, demonstrating the predictive power of AI.

Analyzing life trajectories

The researchers explain that Life2vec works by mapping how someone navigates through life over time. It looks at the order of events that occur – similar to how words in sentences are structured.

By analyzing the life trajectories of thousands of people, it determines the likelihood of certain outcomes, such as mortality. Personal factors play a role in these series and change the outcomes.

So by assessing a person’s current condition based on their health, income, job, etc., Life2vec can effectively predict lifespan. The patterns it reveals in population-level data make surprisingly accurate mortality predictions possible.

Concerns about data privacy and ethics

While Life2vec’s 78% accuracy is technologically impressive, it raises some serious concerns.

How private information is used

First, the AI ​​uses incredibly personal personal health and lifestyle data to make predictions. Researchers emphasize that only anonymized data was used in its development.

However, if rolled out commercially, private citizens would have to share intimate life details. There are high risks of such data being deanonymized or improperly secured. And people can feel uncomfortable handing over so much personal information.

Causing unnecessary anxiety

Second, there are ethical problems with predicting death itself: would people really want to know the date on which they might die? Such information can significantly increase stress and anxiety levels.

And the predictions themselves are not entirely certain; they only achieve an accuracy of 78%. More than 20% of mortality predictions may be incorrect. This can cause people to worry about false predictions or misinterpret the AI’s accuracy.

Focus on end-of-life planning

Nevertheless, the researchers believe their AI predictor has legitimate applications in healthcare, such as guiding end-of-life planning amid the aging population. If mortality estimates become even more accurate in the future, the technology could guide important medical decisions.

But extraordinary care would be needed when handling highly sensitive life-and-death data to avoid public outrage. Any healthcare application would likely be strictly regulated regarding data usage.

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Evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages

The Life2vec predictor demonstrates AI’s ability to discover patterns in massive personal data sets related to longevity. From a technological point of view it is an impressive achievement.

But for such an application we must also consider the social impact. Widespread death prediction threatens to normalize the collection of invasive personal information. It can also have a negative impact on people’s mental health and well-being.

There may be certain medical situations where more sophisticated algorithms can aid healthcare decisions surrounding terminal illnesses. But offering commercial death prediction services seems fraught with ethical dangers for now.

As AI capabilities develop, regulators will likely need to provide guidance on the appropriate use of these emerging technologies. There is enormous potential for algorithms like Life2vec to be abused without supervision. Technologists must work closely with governments and sociologists to limit the damage.

Continuous improvements to the algorithm

In the meantime, the DTU researchers continue to refine the accuracy of their model to more than 78%. With more training data available over a longer period of time, they believe an accuracy of 85% is within reach. But even at those levels, a responsible rollout is crucial.

Broader testing on international datasets could also improve generalizability – although this may require sharing algorithms with Big Tech companies that hold such data. There are complex tradeoffs to navigate between progress and caution in AI development.

Conclusion

Finally, AI-based death prediction tools clearly have significant technological potential, as this Danish study has shown. But predicting life expectancy also has negative social consequences if not carried out carefully. As the pace of AI innovation increases, we need collective foresight to steer progress in a direction that benefits society as a whole.

The way forward is likely to require extensive debate among policymakers, researchers and the public. But if we can reach consensus on ethical application, advanced algorithms like Life2vec can unlock important healthcare insights while respecting personal dignity. Overall, there is a lot of promise in the rise of AI, but only if it is responsibly guided every step of the way.

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